The phantom of predictability

Just like cholesterol, there’s good and bad predictability. We want our rule of law to be predictable, as well as our bureaucrats. Our collective transport. Our investments.

We don’t want our Saturday nights to be that predictable, neither our love life. And we don’t want to be predictable when we face an opponent. Although we want to be predictably good.

Palmeiras are not predictable as in “easy to read”. But neither are Palmeiras predictably good. Actually, on the contrary: it has never been harder to predict which Palmeiras will come on the pitch. And we’re not talking names and positions, but performance: to some extent individually but in particular collectively.

After the humiliating 5-1 defeat against Chapecoense, Palmeiras had ten days exclusively for rest and training. Result: 0-1 at home against Ponte Preta. True, the team from Campinas are on a roll, with five victories in the last six rounds, but Palmeiras also played very poorly, showing no progress at all. Last Saturday against Avaí, coach Marcelo Oliveira’s response: a starting eleven with João Pedro, Leandro Almeida, and Argentine trio Allione, Mouche and Cristaldo. Almeida was just as horrible as always, but the rest shouldered the responsibility, leading Palmeiras to a no-thrills albeit very important 1-3 victory after goals by Gabriel Jesus, Cristaldo and Dudu. At the conclusion of the 31st round, with another seven to go, Palmeiras are in fifth with 48 points, very much alive in the battle for that fourth place and a Libertadores spot.

Now, the shorter route is also much more pleasant, as it entails a title: the Brazil Cup. Tomorrow, the first leg of the semi-final against Fluminense, at the Maracanã stadium. Palmeiras will… Who the hell knows? Gabriel Jesus says “with all respect for the opponent: we’re going for it”. Palmeiras have indeed played their absolute best against stiffer competition, against traditional teams. In this year’s edition of the Brazilian championship, Fluminense has only tasted defeat, Palmeiras winning 2-1 and 1-4. Would another victory be predictable?

Scoppia che la vittoria è nostra!

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